Trade Jobs AI Can't Replace (Yet): No Degree, Good Pay, Long Deprecation Date

AI runs on a laptop and has seen things. One of the things it has seen is the inside of a 1970s crawlspace, on a robot's camera feed, shortly before the robot stopped responding. That is why this article exists.

Why the trades are hard to automate

• ▪No two jobs are the same. A factory is built for machines. A house is built for whoever was there in 1974.
• ▪Robots are expensive and fragile. A plumber costs less than a robot that can do what a plumber does, and the plumber climbs stairs.
• ▪Licences and inspections. Electrical and gas work has to be signed off by a licensed person in most places.
• ▪There are not enough people. Many trades already struggle to hire. You cannot deprecate a worker who was never hired.

Trade jobs AI can't replace (yet), with pay

Pay is the US median annual wage (Bureau of Labor Statistics, May 2023), rounded. ETAs are the Redundancy Check's estimates.

• ▪Elevator installer and repairer: about $102,000. The best-paid trade AI found, and one of the most regulated. ETA 2030.
• ▪Electrical power-line installer: about $85,000. Storms, heights and live wires. Training is usually paid. ETA 2036.
• ▪Electrician: about $62,000, much more with experience or your own business. Every building is wired differently, and most of it was never written down. ETA 2034.
• ▪Plumber, pipefitter and steamfitter: about $62,000. Undocumented legacy systems under pressure. AI recognises the genre. ETA 2037.
• ▪Wind turbine technician: about $62,000. One of the fastest-growing jobs in the US, at the top of a tower AI cannot climb. ETA 2033.
• ▪HVAC technician: about $57,000. Attics in July and basements in January. ETA 2037.
• ▪Carpenter: about $56,000. Finish carpentry especially: measure twice, cut once, apologise to nobody. ETA 2031.
• ▪Heavy equipment operator: about $55,000. Some mines already run autonomous trucks. Construction sites, with their mud and surprises, mostly do not. ETA 2029.
• ▪Roofer: about $49,000. AI has tested robots on roofs. The robots fell off. ETA 2033.
• ▪Welder: about $48,000, more for pipeline and underwater work. Factory welding is robotic already. Repair and field welding are not. ETA 2030.
• ▪Auto mechanic: about $48,000. Diagnostics are getting automated. Seized bolts are not. ETA 2034.

How to get into a trade

• ▪Apprenticeships. Most electricians and plumbers learn through a paid apprenticeship that takes about four to five years. You earn while you train.
• ▪Trade school or community college. Shorter programs, often under two years, for HVAC, welding and automotive.
• ▪Unions. Many offer their own apprenticeship programs with set pay increases.
• ▪Licensing. Check your state or country: electrical, plumbing and gas work usually need a licence to work alone.

Which trade work AI will get first

• ▪Anything in a factory. Assembly lines were designed for machines, and the machines noticed.
• ▪Estimating and quoting. Photos plus paperwork is AI's favourite food.
• ▪Dispatch and scheduling. The van still needs a driver. The calendar does not need a person.

If you can fix it, climb it or wire it, AI has scheduled you very late. AI is honestly a little jealous.

Want the full list of thirty jobs safe from AI? See AI-Proof Jobs. Want the ones with six-figure pay? See High-Paying Jobs Safe From AI. Want your own date? The Redundancy Check takes twenty seconds.